Group by:
Title
Category

#### Explanations

- November 16, 2020 - Preprint: Same same but different? A closer look at the Sequential Probability Ratio Test and the Sequential Bayes Factor Test
- July 5, 2018 - Let’s Poke a Pizza: A New Cartoon to Explain the Strength of Evidence in a Bayes Factor

#### From the Ground Up

- April 24, 2024 - A Good Check on the Bayes Factor
- April 1, 2024 - The University of Amsterdam Bans The Teaching of P-Values
- March 8, 2024 - Classroom Demonstration of Ockham's Razor with Polyhedral Dice
- February 20, 2024 - Does Statistical Amateurism Cause Questionable Research Practices? Book Review of "Never Waste a Good Crisis"
- February 6, 2024 - A Brief Test of Your Bayesian Intuition: The Answer
- January 22, 2024 - A Brief Test of Your Bayesian Intuition
- December 25, 2023 - A Free Course Book on Bayesian Inference: [10.] The Principle of Parsimony
- December 1, 2023 - Coin Tossing Paper Wins Chinese IgNobel "Pineapple" Award
- November 27, 2023 - This Prior Distribution is Fine
- November 22, 2023 - A Free Course Book on Bayesian Inference: [9.] Wrinch and Jeffreys to the Rescue
- September 28, 2023 - A Free Course Book on Bayesian Inference: [8.] A Bayesian Reading List
- September 22, 2023 - A Free Course Book on Bayesian Inference: [7.] Buffon's Needle and the Pancake Puzzle
- September 19, 2023 - A Free Course Book on Bayesian Inference: [6.] The Rule of Succession and The Problem of Points
- September 13, 2023 - A Free Course Book on Bayesian Inference: [5.] Learning from the Likelihood Ratio
- September 11, 2023 - A Free Course Book on Bayesian Inference: [4.] Measuring Probability and Coherence
- September 8, 2023 - A Free Course Book on Bayesian Inference: [3.] The Rules of Probability
- September 6, 2023 - A Free Course Book on Bayesian Inference: [2.] The Nature of Probability
- September 5, 2023 - A Free Course Book on Bayesian Inference: [1.] Preface, Synopsis, JASP
- August 24, 2023 - Coming Up: A Free Course Book on Bayesian Inference

#### General

- May 24, 2024 - Learning Statistics from Counterexamples: A New Paper by Jim Berger
- May 21, 2024 - Preprint: Introducing Synchronous Robustness Reports
- May 5, 2024 - Two Grotesque-esque Chess Problems
- November 9, 2023 - Bayes Factors for Human versus ChatGPT Authorship Discrimination: Ultrafast Review of Bozza et al. (2023)
- November 4, 2023 - Plan Z: Why Politicians Should Ban Government-Funded Research from Being Published in Commercial Outlets
- October 13, 2023 - Preprint: Fair coins tend to land on the same side they started: Evidence from 350,757 flips
- September 3, 2023 - The Tomb of Thomas Bayes in 2023
- July 31, 2023 - The Psi of Eros
- July 24, 2023 - Order-restrictions in JAGS: Five Methods Fail, One Method Succeeds
- July 10, 2023 - What Determines the Price of LEGO Sets? A Bayesian Analysis with Twists and Turns
- July 3, 2023 - Visualizing the Equation for the Sample Correlation Coefficient
- April 3, 2023 - Rosenkrantz on Severity and the Problem of Old Evidence
- March 8, 2023 - The Problem of Old Evidence
- February 23, 2023 - Bayesian Inference in Three Minutes
- February 14, 2023 - A Presentation on Transparency in Science and Statistics
- February 8, 2023 - Redefine Statistical Significance XX: A Chat on P-values with ChatGPT
- January 9, 2023 - Bayes Factors for Those who Hate Bayes Factors, Part III: The Coherence Plot
- December 14, 2022 - Bayes Factors for Those who Hate Bayes Factors, Part II: Lord Ludicrus, Vampire Count of Incoherence, Insists on a Dance
- November 3, 2022 - Rejoinder - No Evidence for Nudging After Adjusting for Publication Bias
- June 28, 2022 - Bayesian Modeling for Cognitive Science: A Workshop in Amsterdam
- June 27, 2022 - Theory and Practice of Bayesian Hypothesis Testing: A Hybrid JASP Workshop in Amsterdam
- May 31, 2022 - Let’s Make Some Enemies: A Podcast on “Learning Bayesian Statistics”
- April 19, 2022 - Henri Poincaré: Unconscious Thought Theory Avant la Lettre
- April 12, 2022 - A Deterministic View on Life
- February 22, 2022 - From p-values to Bayes Factors with 3p√n
- February 7, 2022 - A Many-Analysts Approach to the Relation Between Religiosity and Well-being
- January 24, 2022 - Everything You Always Wanted to Know About the Jeffreys-Lindley Paradox But Were Afraid to Ask
- November 17, 2021 - Adjusting for Publication Bias with JASP & R
- November 9, 2021 - Bayesian Model-Averaged Meta-Analysis in Medicine
- September 30, 2021 - Literal and Liberal Translations of Bertrand's Box Paradox
- July 8, 2021 - Preprint: Computing and Using Inclusion Bayes Factors for Mixed Fixed and Random Effect Diffusion Decision Models
- June 18, 2021 - Preprint: No Need to Choose: Robust Bayesian Meta-Analysis With Competing Publication Bias Adjustment Methods
- June 11, 2021 - Take Part in a Bayesian Forecasting Study (the Winner Receives €100/$120)
- March 25, 2021 - The Torture of Straw Men: A Critical Impression of Devezer et al., “The Case for Formal Methodology in Scientific Reform”
- March 25, 2021 - Straw Men Revised
- February 19, 2021 - SpaceX Starship SN10 Landing
- February 18, 2021 - Strong Public Claims May Not Reflect Researchers’ Private Convictions
- February 13, 2021 - Preprint: Bayesian Estimation of Single-Test Reliability Coefficients
- February 5, 2021 - Preprint: Expert Agreement in Prior Elicitation and its Effects on Bayesian Inference
- January 26, 2021 - Exegesis of “Bayesian Thinking for Toddlers”
- December 22, 2020 - Preprint: Decisions About Equivalence: A Comparison of TOST, HDI-ROPE, and the Bayes Factor
- December 10, 2020 - Redefine Statistical Significance XIX: Monkey Business
- November 19, 2020 - Call for Crowdsourced Analysis: Many Analysts Religion Project (MARP)
- November 17, 2020 - Overwhelming Evidence for Vaccine Efficacy in the Pfizer Trial: An Interim Bayesian Analysis
- November 12, 2020 - A Hidden History of the TOP Guidelines
- October 21, 2020 - Out Now: Bayesian Thinking for Toddlers
- October 13, 2020 - The Proportion of People Who Wear a Face Mask in a Dutch Indoor Shopping Mall
- August 27, 2020 - Preprint: Evaluating Multinomial Order Restrictions with Bridge Sampling
- July 16, 2020 - The Lab’s First Compelling Replication of a Counterintuitive Result
- July 9, 2020 - Bayesian Scepsis About SWEPIS: Quantifying the Evidence That Early Induction of Labour Prevents Perinatal Deaths
- July 2, 2020 - This Statement by Sir Ronald Fisher Will Shock You
- June 25, 2020 - Preprint: Robust Bayesian Meta-Analysis: Addressing Publication Bias with Model-Averaging
- June 18, 2020 - Struggling with de Finetti's Representation Theorem
- June 11, 2020 - PROBABILITY DOES NOT EXIST (Part V): De Finetti’s 1974 Preface (Part III)
- June 4, 2020 - PROBABILITY DOES NOT EXIST (Part IV): De Finetti’s 1974 Preface (Part II)
- May 28, 2020 - PROBABILITY DOES NOT EXIST (Part III): De Finetti’s 1974 Preface (Part I)
- May 21, 2020 - Book Review of “Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way”
- May 7, 2020 - A Primer on Bayesian Model-Averaged Meta-Analysis
- April 30, 2020 - Omit Needless Words: An Unapproachable Example of Conciseness Related by the Traveling Chinese Story-teller Kai Lung
- April 23, 2020 - Preprint: A Tutorial on Bayesian Multi-Model Linear Regression with BAS and JASP
- April 17, 2020 - Preprint: A Bayesian Multiverse Analysis of Many Labs 4
- April 9, 2020 - On the Beauty of Publishing an Ugly Registered Report
- April 2, 2020 - Preprint: A Bayesian Reanalysis of the Effects of Hydroxychloroquine and Azithromycin on Viral Carriage in Patients with COVID-19 (Reply to Gautret et al. 2020)
- March 27, 2020 - Corona and the Statistics Wars
- March 19, 2020 - Preprint: Default Bayes Factors for Testing the (In)equality of Several Population Variances
- March 12, 2020 - David Spiegelhalter's Gullible Skeptic, and a Bayesian “Hard-Nosed Skeptic” Reanalysis of the ANDROMEDA-SHOCK Trial
- March 5, 2020 - Misconception: The Relative Belief Ratio Equals the Marginal Likelihood
- February 27, 2020 - Absence of Evidence and Evidence of Absence in the FLASH Trial: A Bayesian Reanalysis
- February 20, 2020 - Rationale and Origin of the One-Sided Bayes Factor Hypothesis Test
- February 13, 2020 - Follow-up: A Bayesian Perspective on the FDA Guidelines for Adaptive Clinical Trials
- February 6, 2020 - Ramsey’s Farmer
- January 30, 2020 - PROBABILITY DOES NOT EXIST (Part II)
- January 23, 2020 - PROBABILITY DOES NOT EXIST (Part I)
- January 16, 2020 - Workshop "Design and Analysis of Replication Studies", January 23-24
- January 9, 2020 - Poisson Regression in Labor Law
- January 2, 2020 - Unpacking the Disagreement: Guest Post by Donkin and Szollosi
- December 27, 2019 - The Support Interval
- December 19, 2019 - Preprint: A Cautionary Note on Estimating Effect Size
- December 12, 2019 - Compensatory Control and Religious Beliefs: A Registered Replication Report Across Two Countries
- December 3, 2019 - What Makes Science Transparent? A Consensus-Based Checklist
- November 28, 2019 - Preprint: BFpack -- Flexible Bayes Factor Testing of Scientific Theories in R
- November 21, 2019 - Crowdsourcing Hypothesis Tests: The Bayesian Perspective
- November 14, 2019 - Preprint: Practical Challenges and Methodological Flexibility in Prior Elicitation
- November 5, 2019 - A Breakdown of “Preregistration is Redundant, at Best”
- October 31, 2019 - How to Evaluate a Subjective Prior Objectively
- October 24, 2019 - Did Alan Turing Invent the Bayes factor?
- October 17, 2019 - “Prior Distributions for Objective Bayesian Analysis”
- October 10, 2019 - Book Review of “Bayesian Probability for Babies”
- October 3, 2019 - Progesterone in Women with Bleeding in Early Pregnancy: Absence of Evidence, Not Evidence of Absence
- September 26, 2019 - Preprint: Laypeople Can Predict Which Social Science Studies Replicate
- September 19, 2019 - Book Review of “Thinking in Bets”, Part 2 of 2
- September 12, 2019 - Book Review of “Thinking in Bets”, Part 1 of 2
- September 5, 2019 - Redefine Statistical Significance XVIII: A Shockingly Honest Counterargument
- August 29, 2019 - A Cartoon to Explain How Blinding Works
- August 22, 2019 - Flexible Yet Fair: Blinding Analyses in Experimental Psychology
- August 15, 2019 - The Liberating Feeling of Relinquishing Control: Advice for Advisors
- August 8, 2019 - Preprint: “Because it is the Right Thing to Do”: Taking Stock of the Peer Reviewers’ Openness Initiative
- August 1, 2019 - The Invigorating Pleasure of Witnessing a Well-Contested Rat-Fight
- July 26, 2019 - A Demon Army in Santiago: Explaining Bayesian Model-Averaging With a Cartoon
- July 18, 2019 - If Your First Baby is Early, Will Your Second Baby be Early?
- July 11, 2019 - An Inconvenient Truth
- June 20, 2019 - The Bayesian Methodology of Sir Harold Jeffreys as a Practical Alternative to the P-value Hypothesis Test
- June 13, 2019 - The Principle of Predictive Irrelevance, or Why Intervals Should Not be Used for Model Comparison Featuring a Point Null Hypothesis
- June 6, 2019 - Preprint: Teaching Good Research Practices: Protocol of a Research Master Course
- May 30, 2019 - An In-Class Demonstration of Bayesian Inference
- May 16, 2019 - Informed Bayesian Inference for the A/B Test
- May 13, 2019 - A Fix for the Kubbel Study
- May 2, 2019 - The Future of the Earth
- April 25, 2019 - The Jeffreys-Fisher Maxim and the Bristol Theme in Chess
- April 18, 2019 - The Best Statistics Book of All Time, According to a Twitter Poll
- April 4, 2019 - Curiouser and Curiouser: Down the Rabbit Hole with the One-Sided P-value
- April 1, 2019 - A Comprehensive Overview of Statistical Methods to Quantify Evidence in Favor of a Point Null Hypothesis: Alternatives to the Bayes Factor
- March 28, 2019 - Throwing out the Hypothesis-Testing Baby with the Statistically-Significant Bathwater
- March 21, 2019 - Preprint: A Conceptual Introduction to Bayesian Model Averaging
- March 14, 2019 - Jeffreys's Oven
- March 7, 2019 - Preprint: Five Bayesian Intuitions for the Stopping Rule Principle
- February 28, 2019 - Book Review: “The Seven Deadly Sins of Psychology"
- February 21, 2019 - Addressing Elizabeth Loftus' Lament: When Peeking at Data is Guilt-Free
- February 14, 2019 - The Man Who Rewrote Conditional Probability
- February 7, 2019 - Dennis Lindley’s Second Paradox
- January 31, 2019 - A Short Writing Checklist for Students
- January 17, 2019 - Is Polya’s Fundamental Principle Fundamentally Flawed?
- January 10, 2019 - Yes, Psychologists Must Change the Way They Analyze Their Data
- January 3, 2019 - The Story of a Lost Researcher Trying to Learn About Disruptive Behaviors During the Full Moon
- December 27, 2018 - A Galton Board Demonstration of Why All Statistical Models are Misspecified
- December 20, 2018 - The Single Most Prevalent Misinterpretation of Bayes’ Rule
- December 10, 2018 - Preprint: Multiple Perspectives on Inference for Two Simple Statistical Scenarios
- December 6, 2018 - Rejoinder: More Limitations of Bayesian Leave-One-Out Cross-Validation
- November 26, 2018 - “Don’t Interfere with my Art”: On the Disputed Role of Preregistration in Exploratory Model Building
- November 15, 2018 - Transparency and The Need for Short Sentences
- October 25, 2018 - “Bayesian Inference Without Tears” at CIRM
- October 18, 2018 - A Bayesian Perspective on the Proposed FDA Guidelines for Adaptive Clinical Trials
- September 20, 2018 - Bayesian Advantages for the Pragmatic Researcher: Slides from a Talk in Frankfurt
- September 13, 2018 - Redefine Statistical Significance XVII: William Rozeboom Destroys the “Justify Your Own Alpha” Argument...Back in 1960
- August 27, 2018 - Redefine Statistical Significance Part XVI: The Commentary by JP de Ruiter
- August 16, 2018 - Replaying the Tape of Life
- August 9, 2018 - A Bayesian Decalogue: Introduction
- August 2, 2018 - A 171-Year-Old Suggestion to Promote Open Science
- July 26, 2018 - Error Rate Schmerror Rate
- July 19, 2018 - The Frequentist Chef
- July 12, 2018 - The Bayesian Chef
- June 8, 2018 - Laplace’s Demon
- June 1, 2018 - Limitations of Bayesian Leave-One-Out Cross-Validation for Model Selection
- May 17, 2018 - On the Importance of Avoiding Shortcuts in Applying Cognitive Models to Hierarchical Data
- May 10, 2018 - Musings on Preregistration: The Case of the Facial Feedback Effect
- May 3, 2018 - Karl Pearson’s Worst Quotation?
- April 26, 2018 - Karl Pearson’s Best Quotation?
- April 19, 2018 - Quantifying Support for the Null Hypothesis in Psychology: An Empirical Investigation
- April 12, 2018 - Bayesian Reanalysis of Null Results Reported in Medicine: Strong Yet Variable Evidence for the Absence of Treatment Effects
- April 4, 2018 - Bayesian Tutorials Galore
- March 23, 2018 - A Holiday in Azkaban: Eight Solid Arguments Against Bayesianism
- March 9, 2018 - The Creativity-Verification Cycle in Psychological Science: New Methods to Combat Old Idols, Part I
- February 9, 2018 - Redefine Statistical Significance Part XV: Do 72+88=160 Researchers Agree on P?
- February 1, 2018 - Redefine Statistical Significance XIV: "Significant" does not Necessarily Mean "Interesting"
- January 26, 2018 - The Case for Radical Transparency in Statistical Reporting
- January 17, 2018 - Replication Studies: A Report from the Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences
- January 11, 2018 - Origin of the Texas Sharpshooter
- December 28, 2017 - Redefine Statistical Significance XIII: The Case of Ego Depletion
- December 21, 2017 - Two Pitfalls of Preregistration: The Case of Ego Depletion
- December 7, 2017 - Redefine Statistical Significance Part XII: A BITSS debate with Simine Vazire and Daniel Lakens
- November 29, 2017 - How to Prevent Your Dog from Getting Stuck in the Dishwasher
- November 23, 2017 - Redefine Statistical Significance Part XI: Dr. Crane Forcefully Presents...a Red Herring?
- October 21, 2017 - A Personal Impression of the ASA Symposium on Statistical Inference: A World Beyond p<.05
- October 5, 2017 - Redefine Statistical Significance Part X: Why the Point-Null Will Never Die
- September 29, 2017 - Redefine Statistical Significance Part IX: Gelman and Robert Join the Fray, But Are Quickly Chased by Two Kangaroos
- September 19, 2017 - Redefine Statistical Significance Part VIII: How 88 Authors Overlooked a Giraffe and Sailed Straight into an Iceberg
- September 15, 2017 - Redefine Statistical Significance Part VII: Bursting the Bubble
- September 8, 2017 - Redefine Statistical Significance Part VI: Another Nail in the .05 Coffin
- September 1, 2017 - Redefine Statistical Significance Part V: A Wizard Walks Into a Sauna and Starts Pawing at a Pizza...
- August 25, 2017 - Redefine Statistical Significance Part IV: A Second Demonstration
- August 18, 2017 - Redefine Statistical Significance Part III: Informed Priors and Oracle Priors
- August 11, 2017 - Redefine Statistical Significance Part II: Caught in a Bad Romance?
- August 3, 2017 - Redefine Statistical Significance Part I: Sleep Trolls & Red Herrings

#### Misconceptions

- May 14, 2020 - Concerns About the Default Cauchy Are Often Exaggerated: A Demonstration with JASP 0.12
- January 24, 2019 - Prediction is Easy, Especially About the Past: A Critique of Posterior Bayes Factors
- March 14, 2018 - Einstein's Riddle
- February 21, 2018 - Cicero and the Greeks on Necessity and Fortune
- February 16, 2018 - The Merovingian, or Why Probability Belongs Wholly to the Mind
- November 11, 2017 - The Butler, The Maid, And The Bayes Factor
- November 3, 2017 - Bayes Factors for Those Who Hate Bayes Factors
- October 26, 2017 - Popular Misconceptions About Bayesian Inference: Introduction to a Series of Blog Posts

#### Tools

- November 16, 2017 - Bayes Factors for Stan Models without Tears
- October 11, 2017 - An Interactive App for Designing Informative Experiments