Archive

Explanations

• November 16, 2020 - Preprint: Same same but different? A closer look at the Sequential Probability Ratio Test and the Sequential Bayes Factor Test
• July 5, 2018 - Let’s Poke a Pizza: A New Cartoon to Explain the Strength of Evidence in a Bayes Factor

General

• June 11, 2021 - Take Part in a Bayesian Forecasting Study (the Winner Receives €100/$120)
• March 25, 2021 - The Torture of Straw Men: A Critical Impression of Devezer et al., “The Case for Formal Methodology in Scientific Reform”
• March 25, 2021 - Straw Men Revised
• February 19, 2021 - SpaceX Spaceship SN10 Landing
• February 18, 2021 - Strong Public Claims May Not Reflect Researchers’ Private Convictions
• February 13, 2021 - Preprint: Bayesian Estimation of Single-Test Reliability Coefficients
• February 5, 2021 - Preprint: Expert Agreement in Prior Elicitation and its Effects on Bayesian Inference
• January 26, 2021 - Exegesis of “Bayesian Thinking for Toddlers”
• December 22, 2020 - Preprint: Decisions About Equivalence: A Comparison of TOST, HDI-ROPE, and the Bayes Factor
• December 10, 2020 - Redefine Statistical Significance XIX: Monkey Business
• November 19, 2020 - Call for Crowdsourced Analysis: Many Analysts Religion Project (MARP)
• November 17, 2020 - Overwhelming Evidence for Vaccine Efficacy in the Pfizer Trial: An Interim Bayesian Analysis
• November 12, 2020 - A Hidden History of the TOP Guidelines
• October 21, 2020 - Out Now: Bayesian Thinking for Toddlers
• October 13, 2020 - The Proportion of People Who Wear a Face Mask in a Dutch Indoor Shopping Mall
• August 27, 2020 - Preprint: Evaluating Multinomial Order Restrictions with Bridge Sampling
• July 16, 2020 - The Lab’s First Compelling Replication of a Counterintuitive Result
• July 9, 2020 - Bayesian Scepsis About SWEPIS: Quantifying the Evidence That Early Induction of Labour Prevents Perinatal Deaths
• July 2, 2020 - This Statement by Sir Ronald Fisher Will Shock You
• June 25, 2020 - Preprint: Robust Bayesian Meta-Analysis: Addressing Publication Bias with Model-Averaging
• June 18, 2020 - Struggling with de Finetti's Representation Theorem
• June 11, 2020 - PROBABILITY DOES NOT EXIST (Part V): De Finetti’s 1974 Preface (Part III)
• June 4, 2020 - PROBABILITY DOES NOT EXIST (Part IV): De Finetti’s 1974 Preface (Part II)
• May 28, 2020 - PROBABILITY DOES NOT EXIST (Part III): De Finetti’s 1974 Preface (Part I)
• May 21, 2020 - Book Review of “Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way”
• May 7, 2020 - A Primer on Bayesian Model-Averaged Meta-Analysis
• April 30, 2020 - Omit Needless Words: An Unapproachable Example of Conciseness Related by the Traveling Chinese Story-teller Kai Lung
• April 23, 2020 - Preprint: A Tutorial on Bayesian Multi-Model Linear Regression with BAS and JASP
• April 17, 2020 - Preprint: A Bayesian Multiverse Analysis of Many Labs 4
• April 9, 2020 - On the Beauty of Publishing an Ugly Registered Report
• April 2, 2020 - Preprint: A Bayesian Reanalysis of the Effects of Hydroxychloroquine and Azithromycin on Viral Carriage in Patients with COVID-19 (Reply to Gautret et al. 2020)
• March 27, 2020 - Corona and the Statistics Wars
• March 19, 2020 - Preprint: Default Bayes Factors for Testing the (In)equality of Several Population Variances
• March 12, 2020 - David Spiegelhalter's Gullible Skeptic, and a Bayesian “Hard-Nosed Skeptic” Reanalysis of the ANDROMEDA-SHOCK Trial
• March 5, 2020 - Misconception: The Relative Belief Ratio Equals the Marginal Likelihood
• February 27, 2020 - Absence of Evidence and Evidence of Absence in the FLASH Trial: A Bayesian Reanalysis
• February 20, 2020 - Rationale and Origin of the One-Sided Bayes Factor Hypothesis Test
• February 13, 2020 - Follow-up: A Bayesian Perspective on the FDA Guidelines for Adaptive Clinical Trials
• February 6, 2020 - Ramsey’s Farmer
• January 30, 2020 - PROBABILITY DOES NOT EXIST (Part II)
• January 23, 2020 - PROBABILITY DOES NOT EXIST (Part I)
• January 16, 2020 - Workshop "Design and Analysis of Replication Studies", January 23-24
• January 9, 2020 - Poisson Regression in Labor Law
• January 2, 2020 - Unpacking the Disagreement: Guest Post by Donkin and Szollosi
• December 27, 2019 - The Support Interval
• December 19, 2019 - Preprint: A Cautionary Note on Estimating Effect Size
• December 12, 2019 - Compensatory Control and Religious Beliefs: A Registered Replication Report Across Two Countries
• December 3, 2019 - What Makes Science Transparent? A Consensus-Based Checklist
• November 28, 2019 - Preprint: BFpack -- Flexible Bayes Factor Testing of Scientific Theories in R
• November 21, 2019 - Crowdsourcing Hypothesis Tests: The Bayesian Perspective
• November 14, 2019 - Preprint: Practical Challenges and Methodological Flexibility in Prior Elicitation
• November 5, 2019 - A Breakdown of “Preregistration is Redundant, at Best”
• October 31, 2019 - How to Evaluate a Subjective Prior Objectively
• October 24, 2019 - Did Alan Turing Invent the Bayes factor?
• October 17, 2019 - “Prior Distributions for Objective Bayesian Analysis”
• October 10, 2019 - Book Review of “Bayesian Probability for Babies”
• October 3, 2019 - Progesterone in Women with Bleeding in Early Pregnancy: Absence of Evidence, Not Evidence of Absence
• September 26, 2019 - Preprint: Laypeople Can Predict Which Social Science Studies Replicate
• September 19, 2019 - Book Review of “Thinking in Bets”, Part 2 of 2
• September 12, 2019 - Book Review of “Thinking in Bets”, Part 1 of 2
• September 5, 2019 - Redefine Statistical Significance XVIII: A Shockingly Honest Counterargument
• August 29, 2019 - A Cartoon to Explain How Blinding Works
• August 22, 2019 - Flexible Yet Fair: Blinding Analyses in Experimental Psychology
• August 15, 2019 - The Liberating Feeling of Relinquishing Control: Advice for Advisors
• August 8, 2019 - Preprint: “Because it is the Right Thing to Do”: Taking Stock of the Peer Reviewers’ Openness Initiative
• August 1, 2019 - The Invigorating Pleasure of Witnessing a Well-Contested Rat-Fight
• July 26, 2019 - A Demon Army in Santiago: Explaining Bayesian Model-Averaging With a Cartoon
• July 18, 2019 - If Your First Baby is Early, Will Your Second Baby be Early?
• July 11, 2019 - An Inconvenient Truth
• June 20, 2019 - The Bayesian Methodology of Sir Harold Jeffreys as a Practical Alternative to the P-value Hypothesis Test
• June 13, 2019 - The Principle of Predictive Irrelevance, or Why Intervals Should Not be Used for Model Comparison Featuring a Point Null Hypothesis
• June 6, 2019 - Preprint: Teaching Good Research Practices: Protocol of a Research Master Course
• May 30, 2019 - An In-Class Demonstration of Bayesian Inference
• May 16, 2019 - Informed Bayesian Inference for the A/B Test
• May 13, 2019 - A Fix for the Kubbel Study
• May 2, 2019 - The Future of the Earth
• April 25, 2019 - The Jeffreys-Fisher Maxim and the Bristol Theme in Chess
• April 18, 2019 - The Best Statistics Book of All Time, According to a Twitter Poll
• April 4, 2019 - Curiouser and Curiouser: Down the Rabbit Hole with the One-Sided P-value
• April 1, 2019 - A Comprehensive Overview of Statistical Methods to Quantify Evidence in Favor of a Point Null Hypothesis: Alternatives to the Bayes Factor
• March 28, 2019 - Throwing out the Hypothesis-Testing Baby with the Statistically-Significant Bathwater
• March 21, 2019 - Preprint: A Conceptual Introduction to Bayesian Model Averaging
• March 14, 2019 - Jeffreys's Oven
• March 7, 2019 - Preprint: Five Bayesian Intuitions for the Stopping Rule Principle
• February 28, 2019 - Book Review: “The Seven Deadly Sins of Psychology"
• February 21, 2019 - Addressing Elizabeth Loftus' Lament: When Peeking at Data is Guilt-Free
• February 14, 2019 - The Man Who Rewrote Conditional Probability
• February 7, 2019 - Dennis Lindley’s Second Paradox
• January 31, 2019 - A Short Writing Checklist for Students
• January 17, 2019 - Is Polya’s Fundamental Principle Fundamentally Flawed?
• January 10, 2019 - Yes, Psychologists Must Change the Way They Analyze Their Data
• January 3, 2019 - The Story of a Lost Researcher Trying to Learn About Disruptive Behaviors During the Full Moon
• December 27, 2018 - A Galton Board Demonstration of Why All Statistical Models are Misspecified
• December 20, 2018 - The Single Most Prevalent Misinterpretation of Bayes’ Rule
• December 10, 2018 - Preprint: Multiple Perspectives on Inference for Two Simple Statistical Scenarios
• December 6, 2018 - Rejoinder: More Limitations of Bayesian Leave-One-Out Cross-Validation
• November 26, 2018 - “Don’t Interfere with my Art”: On the Disputed Role of Preregistration in Exploratory Model Building
• November 15, 2018 - Transparency and The Need for Short Sentences
• October 25, 2018 - “Bayesian Inference Without Tears” at CIRM
• October 18, 2018 - A Bayesian Perspective on the Proposed FDA Guidelines for Adaptive Clinical Trials
• September 20, 2018 - Bayesian Advantages for the Pragmatic Researcher: Slides from a Talk in Frankfurt
• September 13, 2018 - Redefine Statistical Significance XVII: William Rozeboom Destroys the “Justify Your Own Alpha” Argument...Back in 1960
• August 27, 2018 - Redefine Statistical Significance Part XVI: The Commentary by JP de Ruiter
• August 16, 2018 - Replaying the Tape of Life
• August 9, 2018 - A Bayesian Decalogue: Introduction
• August 2, 2018 - A 171-Year-Old Suggestion to Promote Open Science
• July 26, 2018 - Error Rate Schmerror Rate
• July 19, 2018 - The Frequentist Chef
• July 12, 2018 - The Bayesian Chef
• June 8, 2018 - Laplace’s Demon
• June 1, 2018 - Limitations of Bayesian Leave-One-Out Cross-Validation for Model Selection
• May 17, 2018 - On the Importance of Avoiding Shortcuts in Applying Cognitive Models to Hierarchical Data
• May 10, 2018 - Musings on Preregistration: The Case of the Facial Feedback Effect
• May 3, 2018 - Karl Pearson’s Worst Quotation?
• April 26, 2018 - Karl Pearson’s Best Quotation?
• April 19, 2018 - Quantifying Support for the Null Hypothesis in Psychology: An Empirical Investigation
• April 12, 2018 - Bayesian Reanalysis of Null Results Reported in Medicine: Strong Yet Variable Evidence for the Absence of Treatment Effects
• April 4, 2018 - Bayesian Tutorials Galore
• March 23, 2018 - A Holiday in Azkaban: Eight Solid Arguments Against Bayesianism
• March 9, 2018 - The Creativity-Verification Cycle in Psychological Science: New Methods to Combat Old Idols, Part I
• February 9, 2018 - Redefine Statistical Significance Part XV: Do 72+88=160 Researchers Agree on P?
• February 1, 2018 - Redefine Statistical Significance XIV: "Significant" does not Necessarily Mean "Interesting"
• January 26, 2018 - The Case for Radical Transparency in Statistical Reporting
• January 17, 2018 - Replication Studies: A Report from the Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences
• January 11, 2018 - Origin of the Texas Sharpshooter
• December 28, 2017 - Redefine Statistical Significance XIII: The Case of Ego Depletion
• December 21, 2017 - Two Pitfalls of Preregistration: The Case of Ego Depletion
• December 7, 2017 - Redefine Statistical Significance Part XII: A BITSS debate with Simine Vazire and Daniel Lakens
• November 29, 2017 - How to Prevent Your Dog from Getting Stuck in the Dishwasher
• November 23, 2017 - Redefine Statistical Significance Part XI: Dr. Crane Forcefully Presents...a Red Herring?
• October 21, 2017 - A Personal Impression of the ASA Symposium on Statistical Inference: A World Beyond p<.05
• October 5, 2017 - Redefine Statistical Significance Part X: Why the Point-Null Will Never Die
• September 29, 2017 - Redefine Statistical Significance Part IX: Gelman and Robert Join the Fray, But Are Quickly Chased by Two Kangaroos
• September 19, 2017 - Redefine Statistical Significance Part VIII: How 88 Authors Overlooked a Giraffe and Sailed Straight into an Iceberg
• September 15, 2017 - Redefine Statistical Significance Part VII: Bursting the Bubble
• September 8, 2017 - Redefine Statistical Significance Part VI: Another Nail in the .05 Coffin
• September 1, 2017 - Redefine Statistical Significance Part V: A Wizard Walks Into a Sauna and Starts Pawing at a Pizza...
• August 25, 2017 - Redefine Statistical Significance Part IV: A Second Demonstration
• August 18, 2017 - Redefine Statistical Significance Part III: Informed Priors and Oracle Priors
• August 11, 2017 - Redefine Statistical Significance Part II: Caught in a Bad Romance?
• August 3, 2017 - Redefine Statistical Significance Part I: Sleep Trolls & Red Herrings

Misconceptions

• May 14, 2020 - Concerns About the Default Cauchy Are Often Exaggerated: A Demonstration with JASP 0.12
• January 24, 2019 - Prediction is Easy, Especially About the Past: A Critique of Posterior Bayes Factors
• March 14, 2018 - Einstein's Riddle
• February 21, 2018 - Cicero and the Greeks on Necessity and Fortune
• February 16, 2018 - The Merovingian, or Why Probability Belongs Wholly to the Mind
• November 11, 2017 - The Butler, The Maid, And The Bayes Factor
• November 3, 2017 - Bayes Factors for Those Who Hate Bayes Factors
• October 26, 2017 - Popular Misconceptions About Bayesian Inference: Introduction to a Series of Blog Posts

Tools

• November 16, 2017 - Bayes Factors for Stan Models without Tears
• October 11, 2017 - An Interactive App for Designing Informative Experiments