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In a previous blog post, we proposed the following test of your Bayesian intuition: Three friends –Alex, Bart, and Cedric– each assign their own prior distribution to a binomial chance parameter θ. Let’s say that θ is the chance that Harriet bakes a vegan pancake rather than a bacon pancake. Alex assigns θ a beta(300,3) prior distribution, indicating a strong…

Three friends –Alex, Bart, and Cedric– each assign their own prior distribution to a binomial chance parameter θ. Let’s say that θ is the chance that Harriet bakes a vegan pancake rather than a bacon pancake. Alex assigns θ a beta(300,3) prior distribution, indicating a strong belief in high values of θ (i.e., Alex predicts that almost all of Harriet’s…

Bayes’ rule dictates how new data update the credibility of competing accounts of the world . An immediate consequence of the definition of conditional probability, Bayes’ rule is usually presented as follows: The way I mentally check this equation is to take the denominator of the expression on the right-hand side, , and multiply it with the left side of…

Since 2017, Dora Matzke and I have been teaching the master course “Bayesian Inference for Psychological Science”. Over the years, the syllabus for this course matured into a book (and an accompanying book of answers) titled “Bayesian inference from the ground up: The theory of common sense”. The current plan is to finish the book in the next few months,…

As regular readers of this blog already know, Bayes factors rule! In practice, however, the calculation of Bayes factors is seriously hampered by computational difficulties. In a new paper, we revive two theorems put forth by Alan Turing and Jack Good and propose a step-by-step approach to use them as a check for the calculation of Bayes factors. According to…

I am thrilled to report that, after considerable discussion, the University of Amsterdam has agreed to ban the teaching of p-values for first-year students at the Faculty of Social and Behavioural Sciences. The new policy will take effect at the start of the new academic year, and its introduction was facilitated by the fact that I am taking over from…

Inspired by a recent article on Ockham’s razor, this post shows how a simple set of polyhedral dice can clarify the basic idea underlying Bayes factors (or likelihood ratios).  The ideas may be used in a classroom demonstration, and each of the lessons below could be discovered by the students themselves. Meet the Family Our polyhedral dice are a family…