Learning Statistics from Counterexamples: A New Paper by Jim Berger

This week I came across an inspired/inspiring article by Jim Berger, “Learning statistics from counterexamples“. This short paper strikes at the very heart of statistics; it seems to me that every statistician (whether young or old, frequentist or Bayesian) ought to have an opinion on the counterexamples — sitting on the fence is not an option. Below I give the…

read more

Preprint: Introducing Synchronous Robustness Reports

“Data analysis is like an iceberg, it floats with one-seventh of its mass above water” Adjusted from a quotation incorrectly attributed to Sigmund Freud Preprint: https://osf.io/preprints/psyarxiv/edzfj Abstract “The vast majority of empirical research articles feature a single primary analysis outcome that is the result of a single analysis plan, executed by a single analysis team. However, recent multi-analyst projects have…

read more

Two Grotesque-esque Chess Problems

WARNING: This post is about chess. If you don’t play chess you might want to skip this post.  During a week-long family vacation I engaged obsessively in both the highest and the lowest form of human intellectual activity. Obviously the highest form is chess endgame study composition; the lowest form surely is online “bullet” chess. Miraculously, my bullet chess adventures…

read more

Bayes Factors for Human versus ChatGPT Authorship Discrimination: Ultrafast Review of Bozza et al. (2023)

Today I came across the recently published article “A model-independent redundancy measure for human versus ChatGPT authorship discrimination using a Bayesian probabilistic approach” by Bozza and colleagues. As the title suggests, Bozza et al. use Bayes factors to quantify the evidence for texts being generated by humans versus ChatGPT. This seems exactly the right approach, and I am generally a fan…

read more

Plan Z: Why Politicians Should Ban Government-Funded Research from Being Published in Commercial Outlets

The current state of academic publishing is a sad affair. Academics (funded by taxpayers) edit and review each other’s work, an activity associated with truly staggering effort and costs (i.e., over 100 million work hours of peer review translating to an estimated monetary value of 1.5 billion US dollars per year; Aczel et al., 2021). When the work is deemed…

read more

Preprint: Fair coins tend to land on the same side they started: Evidence from 350,757 flips

This post is a synopsis of Bartoš et al. (2023). Fair coins tend to land on the same side they started: Evidence from 350,757 flips. Preprint available at https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2310.04153. Post-specific images were generated by Bing. Abstract Many people have flipped coins but few have stopped to ponder the statistical and physical intricacies of the process. In a preregistered study we…

read more

The Tomb of Thomas Bayes in 2023

In July this year, my friend and long-term collaborator Michael Lee visited the grave of Thomas Bayes at Bunhill Fields in London. When Michael showed me the photo I was shocked. This is what Bayes’ tomb looks like in 2023: Overgrown with moss and generally in a sorry state, this is hardly a worthy monument to the man who pioneered…

read more

The Psi of Eros

This is a DeepL-assisted translation of an article for the Dutch magazine Skepter (Wagenmakers, 2023). I am grateful to the editor, Hans van Maanen, for his efforts in rewriting my original draft. The painting is a self-portrait by René Magritte called ‘La Clairvoyance’ (1936 – proposed by van Maanen to accompany the article).  TLDR;  Can psychology students really anticipate the appearance…

read more