Origin of the Texas Sharpshooter II: The Dubner Maggid

The picture of the Texas sharpshooter  is available in our artwork library (CC-BY). Artwork by Dirk-Jan Hoek, concept by Eric-Jan Wagenmakers. In a 2018 blog post I mentioned that it is unclear who first came up with analogy of the Texas sharpshooter: The infamous Texas sharpshooter fires randomly at a barn door and then paints the targets around the bullet…

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Clarkson’s Farm and the Clarkson Ring

The hit series “Clarkson’s Farm” has Jeremy Clarkson attempt farming, in a highly amusing mix between Mr. Bean, John Cleese in Clockwise, and Pat & Mat. After binge-watching the first three seasons, I was struck by one particular topic: the mass death of the piglets. Clarkson houses his sows in “pigloos” — dome-shaped pig farrowing pens. The first time the…

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Psychological Methods Lab Receives the 2024 Ammodo Science Award: The Video

TLDR; the video is here. This week the Psychological Methods Lab received an 800,000 euro Ammodo Science Award for groundbreaking research. This award was for our entire Psychological Methods group and allows us to develop our joint Open Science research agenda. The logistics was handled expertly by the Ammodo team, from start to finish. Part of the procedure was a…

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Learning Statistics from Counterexamples: A New Paper by Jim Berger

This week I came across an inspired/inspiring article by Jim Berger, “Learning statistics from counterexamples“. This short paper strikes at the very heart of statistics; it seems to me that every statistician (whether young or old, frequentist or Bayesian) ought to have an opinion on the counterexamples — sitting on the fence is not an option. Below I give the…

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Preprint: Introducing Synchronous Robustness Reports

“Data analysis is like an iceberg, it floats with one-seventh of its mass above water” Adjusted from a quotation incorrectly attributed to Sigmund Freud Preprint: https://osf.io/preprints/psyarxiv/edzfj Abstract “The vast majority of empirical research articles feature a single primary analysis outcome that is the result of a single analysis plan, executed by a single analysis team. However, recent multi-analyst projects have…

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Two Grotesque-esque Chess Problems

WARNING: This post is about chess. If you don’t play chess you might want to skip this post.  During a week-long family vacation I engaged obsessively in both the highest and the lowest form of human intellectual activity. Obviously the highest form is chess endgame study composition; the lowest form surely is online “bullet” chess. Miraculously, my bullet chess adventures…

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Bayes Factors for Human versus ChatGPT Authorship Discrimination: Ultrafast Review of Bozza et al. (2023)

Today I came across the recently published article “A model-independent redundancy measure for human versus ChatGPT authorship discrimination using a Bayesian probabilistic approach” by Bozza and colleagues. As the title suggests, Bozza et al. use Bayes factors to quantify the evidence for texts being generated by humans versus ChatGPT. This seems exactly the right approach, and I am generally a fan…

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Plan Z: Why Politicians Should Ban Government-Funded Research from Being Published in Commercial Outlets

The current state of academic publishing is a sad affair. Academics (funded by taxpayers) edit and review each other’s work, an activity associated with truly staggering effort and costs (i.e., over 100 million work hours of peer review translating to an estimated monetary value of 1.5 billion US dollars per year; Aczel et al., 2021). When the work is deemed…

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