This post is a synopsis of  Pfadt, J. M., van den Bergh, D., Sijtsma, K., Moshagen, M., & Wagenmakers, E.-J. (in press). Bayesian estimation of single-test reliability coefficients. Multivariate Behavioral Research. Preprint available at https://psyarxiv.com/exg2y   Abstract Popular measures of reliability for a single-test administration include coefficient α, coefficient λ2, the greatest lower bound (glb), and coefficient ω. First, we…

This post is an extended synopsis of Stefan, A. M., Katsimpokis, D., Gronau, Q. F. & Wagenmakers, E.-J. (2021). Expert agreement in prior elicitation and its effects on Bayesian inference. Preprint available on PsyArXiv: https://psyarxiv.com/8xkqd/ Abstract Bayesian inference requires the specification of prior distributions that quantify the pre-data uncertainty about parameter values. One way to specify prior distributions is through…

“Bayesian Thinking for Toddlers” is a children’s book that attempts to explain the core of Bayesian inference. I believe that core to be twofold. The first key notion is that of probability as a degree of belief, intensity of conviction, quantification of knowledge, assessment of plausibility, however you want to call it — just as long as it is not some…

This post is an extended synopsis of Linde, M., Tendeiro, J. N., Selker, R., Wagenmakers, E.-J., & van Ravenzwaaij, D. (submitted). Decisions about equivalence: A comparison of TOST, HDI-ROPE, and the Bayes factor. Preprint available on PsyArXiv: https://psyarxiv.com/bh8vu   Abstract Some important research questions require the ability to find evidence for two conditions being practically equivalent. This is impossible to…

Background: the 2018 article “Redefine Statistical Significance” suggested that it is prudent to treat p-values just below .05 with a grain of salt, as such p-values provide only weak evidence against the null. Here we provide another empirical demonstration of this fact. Specifically, we examine the degree to which recently published data provide evidence for the claim that students who…

What is the idea? We invite researchers to answer two theoretically relevant research questions by analyzing a recently collected dataset on religion and well-being (N=10,535 from 24 countries). We aim to evaluate the relation between religiosity and well-being using a many analysts approach (cf. Silberzahn et al., 2018). This means that we are inviting multiple analysis teams to answer the…

Available on https://psyarxiv.com/fs562, this is a Bayesian analysis of the Pfizer Phase 3 clinical trial on a vaccine against COVID-19. Alternative analyses have been presented by Bob Carpenter, Sebastian Kranz, and Chuck Powell. On Monday November 9th 2020, Pfizer and BioNTech issued a press release1 in which Pfizer CEO Dr. Albert Bourla stated: “Today is a great day for science…