This month I gave a 45-minute presentation “Transparency in Science and Statistics” for the Italian Reproducibility Network. This presentation reflects my recent thinking on the topic. Important themes include “how to use a Ulysses contract to avoid fooling yourself (and others)”, “how to reveal uncertainty that often remains hidden”, “what is model-myopia (and how to avoid it)”, and “can Mertonian…
read moreTLDR: ChatGPT rocks It has been more than two years since doing a post for the “Redefine Statistical Significance” series (https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/redefine-statistical-significance-xix-monkey-business/). In this series, Quentin Gronau and I demonstrated through countless examples that p-values just below .05 (“reject the null”!) should be interpreted with great caution, as such p-values provide –at best– only weak evidence against the null (see Benjamin…
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On June 6th I gave a one-hour lecture for SIOS, the Student Initiative for Open Science in Amsterdam (you can follow them on Twitter @StudentIOS). The slides are at https://osf.io/5s9uq/, and a YouTube video of the entire lecture is at https://t.co/u7bkqaC6Ko. Abstract This presentation consists of three parts. In the first, I will present a whirlwind tour…
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This post summarizes Wagenmakers, E.-J., Lee, M. D., Rouder, J. N., & Morey, R. D. (2019). The principle of predictive irrelevance, or why intervals should not be used for model comparison featuring a point null hypothesis. Manuscript submitted for publication. Preprint available on PsyArXiv: https://psyarxiv.com/rqnu5 Abstract The principle of predictive irrelevance states that when two competing models predict a data…
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WARNING: this post deals exclusively with a chess endgame study. A previous post discussed the Bristol theme from chess endgame study composition. One of the featured studies was created by the great Leonid Kubbel. This is what I wrote: “Since its inception, the Bristol theme has appealed to several composers. One of the most famous, Leonid Kubbel, created the following…
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Most statisticians know Sir Harold Jeffreys as the conceptual father and tireless promotor of the Bayesian hypothesis test. However, Jeffreys was also a prominent geophysicist. For instance, Jeffreys is credited with the discovery that the earth has a liquid core. Recently, I read Jeffreys’s 1929 book “The Future of the Earth”, which is a smaller and more accessible version…
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WARNING: This post starts with two chess studies. They are both magnificent, but if you don’t play chess you might want to skip them. I thank Ulrike Fischer for creating the awesome LaTeX package “chessboard”. NB. The idea discussed here also occurs in Haaf et al. (2019), the topic of a previous post. The Bristol Theme The game of chess…
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Some time ago I ran a twitter poll to determine what people believe is the best statistics book of all time. This is the result: The first thing to note about this poll is that there are only 26 votes. My disappointment at this low number intensified after I ran a control poll, which received more than double the votes:
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