An In-Class Demonstration of Bayesian Inference

This post is an extended synopsis of van Doorn, J. B., Matzke D., & Wagenmakers, E.-J. (in press). An In-Class Demonstration of Bayesian Inference. Psychology Learning and Teaching (https://doi.org/10.1177/14757 25719848574). Preprint available on PsyArXiv:https://psyarxiv.com/d8bvn/ Abstract Over 80 years ago, Sir Ronald Fisher conducted the famous experiment “The Lady Tasting Tea” in order to test whether his colleague, Dr. Muriel Bristol,…

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Informed Bayesian Inference for the A/B Test

This post is an extended synopsis of a preprint that is available on arXiv: http://arxiv.org/abs/1905.02068 Abstract Booming in business and a staple analysis in medical trials, the A/B test assesses the effect of an intervention or treatment by comparing its success rate with that of a control condition. Across many practical applications, it is desirable that (1) evidence can be…

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A Fix for the Kubbel Study

WARNING: this post deals exclusively with a chess endgame study. A previous post discussed the Bristol theme from chess endgame study composition. One of the featured studies was created by the great Leonid Kubbel. This is what I wrote: “Since its inception, the Bristol theme has appealed to several composers. One of the most famous, Leonid Kubbel, created the following…

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The Future of the Earth

  Most statisticians know Sir Harold Jeffreys as the conceptual father and tireless promotor of the Bayesian hypothesis test. However, Jeffreys was also a prominent geophysicist. For instance, Jeffreys is credited with the discovery that the earth has a liquid core. Recently, I read Jeffreys’s 1929 book “The Future of the Earth”, which is a smaller and more accessible version…

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