The Lab’s First Compelling Replication of a Counterintuitive Result

The small plastic dome containing a die in the popular game “Mens Erger Je Niet!” (“Don’t Get So Annoyed!”) causes a bias — the die tends to land on the side opposite to how it started. This was not our initial hypothesis, however… The 106-year old game “Mens Erger Je Niet!” (a German invention) involves players tossing a die and…

read more

Bayesian Scepsis About SWEPIS: Quantifying the Evidence That Early Induction of Labour Prevents Perinatal Deaths

To paraphrase Mark Twain: “to someone with a hammer, everything looks like a nail”. And so, having implemented the Bayesian A/B test (Kass & Vaidyanathan, 1992) in R and in JASP (Gronau, Raj, & Wagenmakers, 2019), we have been on a mission to apply the methodology to various clinical trials. In contrast to most psychology experiments, lives are actually on…

read more

This Statement by Sir Ronald Fisher Will Shock You

Sir Ronald Aylmer Fisher (1890-1962) was one of the greatest statisticians of all time. However, Fisher was also stubborn, belligerent, and a eugenicist. When it comes to shocking remarks, one does not need to dig deep: In a dissenting opinion on the 1950 UNESCO report “The race question”, Fisher argued that “Available scientific knowledge provides a firm basis for believing…

read more