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“Prior Distributions for Objective Bayesian Analysis”

The purpose of this blog post is to call attention to the paper “Prior Distributions for Objective Bayesian Analysis”, authored by Guido Consonni, Dimitris Fouskakis, Brunero Liseo, and Ioannis Ntzoufras (NB: Ioannis is a member of the JASP advisory board!). The paper –published in the journal “Bayesian Analysis”— provides a comprehensive overview of objective Bayesian analysis, with an emphasis on model selection and linear regression.

Book Review of “Bayesian Probability for Babies”

“Bayesian Probability for Babies” is a book that explains Bayes’ rule through a simple story about cookies. I battle-tested the book on my two-year old son Theo (admittedly no longer a baby), and he seemed somewhat intrigued by the idea of candy-covered cookies, although the more subtle points of the story must have eluded him. Theo gives the book three out of five stars: the cookies are a good idea but the book has no dinosaurs.

Progesterone in Women with Bleeding in Early Pregnancy: Absence of Evidence, Not Evidence of Absence

Available on https://psyarxiv.com/etk7g/, this is a comment on a recent article in the New England Journal of Medicine (Coomarasamy et al., 2019). A response by the authors will follow at a later point.

A recent trial assessed the effectiveness of progesterone in preventing miscarriages.1 The number of live births was 74.7% (1513/2025) in the progesterone group and 72.5% (1459/2013) in the placebo group (p=.08). The authors concluded: “The incidence of adverse events did not differ significantly between the groups.”

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