Coherence Revisited The previous post gave a demonstration of Bayes factor coherence. Specifically, the post considered a test for a binomial parameter , pitting the null hypothesis against the alternative hypothesis (i.e., the uniform distribution from 0 to 1). For fictitious data composed of 5 successes and 5 failures, the Bayes factor equals about 2.71 in favor of . We…

Image by Doremi/Shutterstock.com TLDR; The Last Dance This post demonstrates how Bayes factors are coherent in the sense that the same result obtains regardless of whether the data are analyzed all at once, in batches, or one at a time. The key point is that this coherence arises because Bayes factors are relatively sensitive to the prior distribution. Ironically, the…

The Datacolada post “Meaningless Means: The Average Effect of Nudging is d = 0.43” critiques the recent PNAS meta-analysis on nudging and our commentary “No Evidence for Nudging After Adjusting for Publication Bias” (Maier et al., 2022) for pooling studies that are very heterogeneous. The critique, in fact, echoes many Twitter comments which raised the heterogeneity question immediately after our…

We are delighted to announce that registration is now open for the annual Amsterdam workshop on probabilistic modelling for cognitive science. The tenth instalment of this workshop takes place August 22–26, 2022. Program In this workshop, plenary lectures provide the theoretical background of Bayesian statistics, and practical computer exercises teach participants how to use the popular JAGS and Stan programs…

The JASP Team is excited to announce that registration for our annual two-day hybrid Amsterdam workshop is now open. The workshop will be happening both on-site and via Zoom and it takes place on August 29–30, 2022. Program In this two-day workshop, plenary lectures provide the theoretical background of Bayesian statistics and Bayesian hypothesis testing; in addition, practical exercises demonstrate…

Recently I had the honor to be in a conversation about Bayesian hypothesis testing with the very well prepared Alex Andorra, for his popular podcast “Learning Bayesian Statistics”. If you want to check it out, please go to episode #61, “Why we still use non-Bayesian methods”.

Known as “the last universalist”, Henri Poincaré (1854-1912) made numerous contributions to mathematics and physics. He was also a philosopher of science who published three accessible and highly recommended books on science: “Science and Hypothesis”, “The Value of Science”, and “Science and Method” – this trilogy is now available as “The Foundations of Science”. In “Science and Method”, the chapter…

Many people believe that the future is partly in their own hands. We can usually choose freely whether to watch TV, or read a book, or go to the movies; we decide where to go on vacation, what to eat, whom to marry, and so on. There appears to be no external authority who commands us in such decisions, big…