Laplace’s Demon

if there could be any mortal who could observe with his mind the interconnection of all causes, nothing indeed would escape him. For he who knows the causes of things that are to be necessarily knows all the things that are going to be. (…) For the things which are going to be do not come into existence suddenly, but…

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Limitations of Bayesian Leave-One-Out Cross-Validation for Model Selection

This post is an extended synopsis of a preprint that is available on PsyArXiv. “[…] if you can’t do simple problems, how can you do complicated ones?” — Dennis Lindley (1985, p. 65) Cross-validation (CV) is increasingly popular as a generic method to adjudicate between mathematical models of cognition and behavior. In order to measure model generalizability, CV quantifies out-of-sample…

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