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A Holiday in Azkaban: Eight Solid Arguments Against Bayesianism

Much of my professional life is now spent proselytizing: using practical examples I highlight the virtues of Bayesian inference, and warn against the intellectual Dementors that beset those who base conclusions on a p-value (yes, even when p< .005). And I am not alone: many Bayesians have a religious zeal to spread the faith and guide lost souls to the light. Nevertheless, not all researchers are Bayesian (yet). Why is this? Here I discuss eight arguments of why people may prefer to stay in Azkaban instead of switching to Bayesianism. (more…)


Einstein’s Riddle

Summary

Einstein confused his students with a riddle about probability – or was it Einstein himself who was confused?

Albert Einstein disliked the idea that the laws of nature were inherently probabilistic. ‘God does not play dice with the universe,’ he stated famously and repeatedly. Yet, physicists like Niels Bohr strongly advocated the idea –based on the ‘Copenhagen interpretation’ of quantum theory– that chance is an inalienable and inevitable aspect of nature itself.

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The Creativity-Verification Cycle in Psychological Science: New Methods to Combat Old Idols, Part I

The promised post on Einstein will follow next week.

More and more psychologists are registering their hypotheses, predictions, and analysis plans prior to data collection. Will such preregistration be the death knell for creativity and serendipity? Gilles Dutilh, Alexandra Sarafoglou, and I recently wrote an article for Perspectives on Psychological Science that provides a historical perspective on this question. In the article, we describe the origin and development of “the empirical cycle”, that is, the modern perspective on how scientists can learn from data. In the course of our historical investigations, we came across several interesting anecdotes that lack of space prevented us from including. But we can include them in this series of blog posts. Here is the first story, courtesy of Cornelis Menke.

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