Preprint: Laypeople Can Predict Which Social Science Studies Replicate

This post is an extended synopsis of Hoogeveen, S., Sarafoglou A., & Wagenmakers, E.-J. (2019). Laypeople Can Predict Which Social Science Studies Replicate. Preprint available on PsyArXiv:https://psyarxiv.com/egw9d.      Abstract Large-scale collaborative projects recently demonstrated that several key findings from the social science literature could not be replicated successfully. Here we assess the extent to which a finding’s replication success relates to…

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Book Review of “Thinking in Bets”, Part 2 of 2

This week’s post continues the review of Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke. As I indicated last week, the book is fun and informative, and I gave it 4 out of 5 stars. Consider for instance the following footnote (p. 90):             “I lifted these [absurd reasons people give for their car accidents – EJ]…

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Book Review of “Thinking in Bets”, Part 1 of 2

Written by Annie “The Duchess of Poker” Duke, Thinking in Bets is a national bestseller, and for good reason. The writing style is direct and to-the-point, and the advice is motivated by concrete examples taken from the author’s own experience. For instance, one anecdote concerns a bet among a group of friends on whether or not one of them, “Ira…

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Redefine Statistical Significance XVIII: A Shockingly Honest Counterargument

Background: the 2018 article “Redefine Statistical Significance” suggested that it is prudent to treat p-values just below .05 with a grain of salt, as such p-values provide only weak evidence against the null. By threatening the status quo, this modest proposal ruffled some feathers and elicited a number of counterarguments. As discussed in this series of posts, none of these…

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