To my shame and regret, I only recently found the opportunity to read the book “Bayesian philosophy of science” (BPS), by Jan Sprenger and Stephan Hartmann. It turned out to be a wonderful book, both in appearance, typesetting, and in contents. The book confirmed many of my prior beliefs ;- ) but it also made me think about the…

Recently I was asked to introduce Bayesian inference in three minutes flat. In 10 slides, available at https://osf.io/68y75/, I made the following points: Bayesian inference is “common sense expressed in numbers” (Laplace) We start with at least two rival accounts of the world, aka hypotheses. These hypotheses make predictions, the quality of which determines their change in plausibility: hypotheses that…

This month I gave a 45-minute presentation “Transparency in Science and Statistics” for the Italian Reproducibility Network. This presentation reflects my recent thinking on the topic. Important themes include “how to use a Ulysses contract to avoid fooling yourself (and others)”, “how to reveal uncertainty that often remains hidden”, “what is model-myopia (and how to avoid it)”, and “can Mertonian…

TLDR: ChatGPT rocks It has been more than two years since doing a post for the “Redefine Statistical Significance” series (https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/redefine-statistical-significance-xix-monkey-business/). In this series, Quentin Gronau and I demonstrated through countless examples that p-values just below .05 (“reject the null”!) should be interpreted with great caution, as such p-values provide –at best– only weak evidence against the null (see Benjamin…